Discussion:
Anna Anderson: Franziska Schanzkowska?
(too old to reply)
jlk7e
2003-06-24 08:01:06 UTC
Permalink
Uh huh... so older methods of DNA testing can result in showing that
the daughter of one woman and that woman's sister's daughter's son can
have completely different mitochondrial DNA? Whatever your personal
experiences with Anna Anderson, that's complete bullshit, no matter
what advances DNA testing has undergone in the past ten years.
Not so, genius. If the samples are faulty (which some of them are),
You have argued that the Romanov samples are faulty. I am not arguing
about that at all. I was concerned here only with the comparison of
the Anna Anderson DNA with that of the Duke of Edinburgh. That alone,
without bringing anything else into it, proves that she was not
Anastasia. The rest is gravy (which also supports the case of her not
being Anastasia, but perhaps not as strongly).

and if
the mtDNA testing methods of ten years ago are now known to give a high
percentage of false positive results (which they do),
What percentage is that? And I am not arguing on the basis of
possible "false positives" but on the basis of the negative result
comparing Anna Anderson's DNA with that of the Duke of Edinburgh.
Which did not match. That's not a false positive, or am I missing
something?

and if there's a
question about the shared maternal descent of "one woman and that woman's
sister's daughter's son" (which there definitely is),
hmm? I should have been clearer, here. I was not referring to the
Schanzkowska family at all, but to the Hesse line. Anastasia was the
daughter of Empress Alexandra (agreed?). Alexandra's full sister was
Victoria Milford Haven (agreed?). Victoria Milford Haven's daughter
was Princess Alice of Greece (agreed?) Her son is the Duke of
Edinburgh (agreed?). There is no question of common maternal descent
here. And there was no match between the Duke of Edinburgh's
mitochondrial DNA and that of Anna Anderson, when there should have
been a match if AA had actually been Anastasia. And if there's a high
chance of false positives, then the fact that there was not a positive
at all in this comparison would suggest all the more strongly that
Anna Anderson, whoever she was, was not Grand Duchess Anastasia.

it isn't bullshit at
all. It's the other side's turn now to splutter and spew -- I can hardly
wait! PK
No spluttering and spewing here, as you haven't addressed my point at
all.
p***@verizon.net
2003-06-24 12:02:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by jlk7e
You have argued that the Romanov samples are faulty. I am not arguing
about that at all. I was concerned here only with the comparison of
the Anna Anderson DNA with that of the Duke of Edinburgh. That alone,
without bringing anything else into it, proves that she was not
Anastasia. The rest is gravy (which also supports the case of her not
being Anastasia, but perhaps not as strongly).
Different samples of Anna Anderson's hair, body tissue, and blood reveal
completely dissimilar DNA coding, matching neither the Duke of Edinburgh's
profile, nor the Schanzkowski profile ... samples in Germany do not match
samples in the United States. The Romanov bones are virtually worthless as
forensic evidence. And unless you were present when the Duke of Edinburgh's
hair was plucked, I'd leave him out of it too.
Post by jlk7e
the mtDNA testing methods of ten years ago are now known to give a high
percentage of false positive results (which they do),
What percentage is that?
As high as 20 percent false positive results.

And I am not arguing on the basis of
Post by jlk7e
possible "false positives" but on the basis of the negative result
comparing Anna Anderson's DNA with that of the Duke of Edinburgh.
Which did not match. That's not a false positive, or am I missing
something?
See above.

PK
Brad Verity
2003-06-25 00:45:17 UTC
Permalink
Post by jlk7e
You have argued that the Romanov samples are faulty. I am not arguing
about that at all.
Well, if the Romanov [remains] samples are faulty, then there needs to
be other non-DNA evidence to support the case that the bones were the
Tsar, Tsarina, and three of their daughters.
Post by jlk7e
I was concerned here only with the comparison of
the Anna Anderson DNA with that of the Duke of Edinburgh.
OK.
Post by jlk7e
That alone,
without bringing anything else into it, proves that she was not
Anastasia.
No, it is forensic evidence that AA was not Anastasia. Forensic
evidence is only as objective as those who gather, store and conduct
the forensics (in this case blood, tissue and hair samples and mtDNA
testing). Being an LA native and residing here during the O.J.
Simpson trial, I saw how DNA evidence can be legally applied.

It is your opinion that the forensic DNA evidence is stronger than the
forensic ear comparison evidence (for example) which supported AA
being Anastasia.
Post by jlk7e
The rest is gravy
The rest is fascinating. The rest is history. And much of the rest
needs to be reconciled to the result of the forensic evidence that you
choose to believe closes the book on the case. Starting with how, in
1938, AA stood in front of four siblings (whose mother asserted in
1927 that their missing sister was dead), three of whom denied she was
their sister, and the fourth who claimed she was but wouldn't swear to
it. Why?

For me, AA was not only of interest if she was Anastasia, the daughter
of the Tzar, who survived her family's massacre.
Post by jlk7e
(which also supports the case of her not
being Anastasia, but perhaps not as strongly).
This point we both agree on.
Post by jlk7e
What percentage is that? And I am not arguing on the basis of
possible "false positives" but on the basis of the negative result
comparing Anna Anderson's DNA with that of the Duke of Edinburgh.
Which did not match. That's not a false positive, or am I missing
something?
You are not. AA's mtDNA did not match that of the Duke of Edinburgh
(or whoever were the "living maternal relatives of the Russian Royal
family" referred to by the geneticists in their 1994 letter to Nature
Genetics).

However, I believe Mr. Kurth thought you were referring to Carl
Maucher, not to the Duke of Edinburgh.
Post by jlk7e
hmm? I should have been clearer, here. I was not referring to the
Schanzkowska family at all, but to the Hesse line. Anastasia was the
daughter of Empress Alexandra (agreed?). Alexandra's full sister was
Victoria Milford Haven (agreed?). Victoria Milford Haven's daughter
was Princess Alice of Greece (agreed?) Her son is the Duke of
Edinburgh (agreed?). There is no question of common maternal descent
here.
I agree to all of your above agreeds, and thank you for clarifying
that you were referring to Prince Philip, who holds the exact same
relationship to Anastasia as Carl Maucher holds to Franziska
Schanzkowska.
Post by jlk7e
And there was no match between the Duke of Edinburgh's
mitochondrial DNA and that of Anna Anderson, when there should have
been a match if AA had actually been Anastasia.
Correct.
Post by jlk7e
And if there's a high
chance of false positives, then the fact that there was not a positive
at all in this comparison would suggest all the more strongly that
Anna Anderson, whoever she was, was not Grand Duchess Anastasia.
Also correct. The lack of a mtDNA match in this forensic is a
stronger argument for AA not being Anastasia than if there had been a
match, since there is the possibility for a falsely positive one.
Post by jlk7e
No spluttering and spewing here, as you haven't addressed my point at
all.
I take your point to be (please correct me if I'm wrong): mtDNA
forensic evidence 'proves' AA was not Anastasia and 'strongly proves'
AA was Franziska Schanzkowska.

Peter Kurth's point, as I take it to be, is that due to the
possibility of a false positive result, the mtDNA forensic evidence
can not 'strongly prove' that AA was Franziska Schanzkowska (the
original question of this particular thread).

But, if I got both points correct, I think you may be in agreement
with each other!

Cheers, -------Brad
Brad Verity
2003-06-25 23:33:21 UTC
Permalink
I do not believe the Romanov remains are faulty. I believe they are
largely irrelevant to the question of whether or not Anna Anderson was
Grand Duchess Anastasia.
At this point, I would say you are correct. The mtDNA evidence of no
match between AA and the Duke of Edinburgh needs to be dealt with
first for that question.
Yes, DNA evidence showed that OJ Simpson killed his ex-wife and her
friend Ron Goldman. Somebody making many of the same types of claims
that Anna Anderson's defendants made got him off because the
prosecution made several serious mistakes in their presentation of the
case.
This speaks to the theory behind forensic evidence - that it is
supposed to be completely objective/scientific, and thus definitive
for legal proof. But human variables always enter into the process of
discovering, gathering, testing, and evaluating the evidence.

Certainly everyone involved with the AA mtDNA testing had an agenda
going into it. The hope is that the agenda of those who actually
conducted the tests in the three separate facilities was simply to do
their jobs as accurately as possible. I've seen no evidence to the
contrary so far.
Yes, it is. The DNA evidence showed that Anna Anderson did not share
mitochondrial DNA with the Duke of Edinburgh. Please explain how this
is possible if she was Grand Duchess Anastasia.
Since I assume that the births of Anastasia and of the Duke of
Edinburgh are sufficiently documented enough to not call either's
maternity into question, they should have as identical a match as
possible in any mtDNA test.

That there was no match in the 1994 tests indicates that a) AA was not
Anastasia; or b) there was something amiss/inaccurate in either the
samples or the tests.

Of course, a) is the likeliest and much stronger option from a purely
objective viewpoint. But I'm going to allow for the possibility of
b), or at least to hear any evidence in support of it, and weigh it
accordingly.
Oh, certainly. She was a fascinating figure. However, I was
discussing one aspect only, which was the question of whether or not
she was Anastasia. And I think that a lot of people seem to use their
investigations into other facets of Fräulein Unbekannt's life to try
to cast doubt on the question, when, really, there is no doubt as to
the basic question.
Well, the conclusions of the mtDNA tests being announced at the same
time (AA was not Anastasia; AA was Franziska Schanzkowska), I feel,
make it easy to lump the two different arguments together. As you
pointed out in an earlier post, a negative mtDNA match is stronger
evidence than a postive match (since there's a chance of a false
positive). Greg King's post seems to suggest it was also possible for
false negatives in the mtDNA tests used in '94, though I assume they
still are less likely.
It was the Duke of Edinburgh, I believe. I don't think any others
were used, but I may be wrong.
If anyone knows anything further, I'd love to hear if any other
maternal relatives of the Russian Imperial family were used to match
AA's mtDNA in 1994. It does speak to how many different DNA samples
were used to provide the Hesse sequence.
No, he olds the same relationship to Alexandra as Carl Maucher does to
Franziska, I think,
My bad - you're absolutely right. Good thing I'm not working out the
mtDNA sequences!
but I wasn't very clear in my original comment,
for which I apologize. I was thinking originally of naming names, but
then didn't. Foolishness - always be clear when possible.
No harm - no foul.
My point was not especially related to Franziska Schanzkowska at all,
but simply to the question of whether AA was Anastasia. My original
(and possibly snarky and obnoxious comment) was that, whoever Anna
Anderson was, she was not Anastasia.
Strongly supported by the results of the 1994 mtDNA tests.
To this Mr. Kurth replied by
saying that this was not settled, and talking about faulty DNA tests,
and so forth.
He has much non-forensic evidence (and some forensic) to support his
belief that AA was Anastasia. The case is not settled for him (or
several others) - he now has to get around the 1994 DNA test results,
though.
I replied by trying to focus on the very specific
question of why AA was not Anastasia, but I was, apparently, too
unclear about this.
You were actually pretty clear (except for the Carl Maucher/Duke of
Edinburgh confusion). You have every right to not be convinced by
arguments Peter and others put forth.

However, you argue AA could not have been Anastasia because there was
no mtDNA match. So, you have to expect any counterargument to focus
around the DNA test. If you bring forth another point (AA couldn't be
Anastasia because no one survived the 1918 massacre, for example),
then that can be argued.
Yes, it seems as though there was some misunderstanding. I would
agree that there is at least a small chance that AA was not Franziska
Schanzkowska. I continue to believe that there is no chance that she
was Anastasia.
Thank you for a very civil discussion on the matter.

Cheers, -----Brad
Greg King
2003-06-25 01:23:57 UTC
Permalink
Post by jlk7e
Uh huh... so older methods of DNA testing can result in showing that
the daughter of one woman and that woman's sister's daughter's son can
have completely different mitochondrial DNA? Whatever your personal
experiences with Anna Anderson, that's complete bullshit, no matter
what advances DNA testing has undergone in the past ten years.
Not so, genius. If the samples are faulty (which some of them are),
You have argued that the Romanov samples are faulty. I am not arguing
about that at all. I was concerned here only with the comparison of
the Anna Anderson DNA with that of the Duke of Edinburgh. That alone,
without bringing anything else into it, proves that she was not
Anastasia. The rest is gravy (which also supports the case of her not
being Anastasia, but perhaps not as strongly).
and if
the mtDNA testing methods of ten years ago are now known to give a high
percentage of false positive results (which they do),
What percentage is that? And I am not arguing on the basis of
possible "false positives" but on the basis of the negative result
comparing Anna Anderson's DNA with that of the Duke of Edinburgh.
Which did not match. That's not a false positive, or am I missing
something?
and if there's a
question about the shared maternal descent of "one woman and that woman's
sister's daughter's son" (which there definitely is),
hmm? I should have been clearer, here. I was not referring to the
Schanzkowska family at all, but to the Hesse line. Anastasia was the
daughter of Empress Alexandra (agreed?). Alexandra's full sister was
Victoria Milford Haven (agreed?). Victoria Milford Haven's daughter
was Princess Alice of Greece (agreed?) Her son is the Duke of
Edinburgh (agreed?). There is no question of common maternal descent
here. And there was no match between the Duke of Edinburgh's
mitochondrial DNA and that of Anna Anderson, when there should have
been a match if AA had actually been Anastasia. And if there's a high
chance of false positives, then the fact that there was not a positive
at all in this comparison would suggest all the more strongly that
Anna Anderson, whoever she was, was not Grand Duchess Anastasia.
it isn't bullshit at
all. It's the other side's turn now to splutter and spew -- I can hardly
wait! PK
No spluttering and spewing here, as you haven't addressed my point at
all.
While I am sure I will regret entering into this, I think a couple of
facts have to be pointed out for the sake of accuracy.

Two distinct methods of DNA testing were used to show support for the
hypothesis that Anna Anderson 1) Could not have been a child of
Nicholas and Alexandra; 2) Did not match the mtDNA Hessian profile
derived by Gill and used to match four of the female Ekaterinburg
remains to the profile derived from HRH The Duke of Edinburgh; and 3)
Matched the mtDNA profile of Karl Maucher, lending support to the
hypothesis that she was Schanzkowska.

We're talking about two distinct types of DNA testing-nuclear and
mitochondrial. Nuclear is always preferred as it renders better
results and is considered more accurate, while mtDNA is less
discriminating (as an interesting aside, in the discussions
surrounding the current Toronto case of the man accused of having
kidnapped and killed a young girl, there was much analysis of
potential evidence, and it was pointed out that mtDNA has yet to be
officially entered as accepted evidence into any Canadian trial, while
nuclear DNA has long been accepted).

Rather than argue corruption or conspiracy, I prefer to focus on the
inherent problems with the tests as conducted, most specifically in
reference to advances in genetic science. And here's where it seems
to me, whether one wishes to believe in Anna Anderson or not, it's
best to keep an open mind and at least examine the facts as known now,
rather than repeatedly refer to ten year old tests.

Nuclear DNA tests conducted by FSS and Gill showed that AA could not
possibly have been a daughter of N and A. That seems conclusive, but
in fact changes in the science make the 1994 verdict obsolete. Here's
why: FSS used a 6 point Short Tandem Repeat analysis of the nuclear
DNA to arrive at these results. The 6 point STR test showed AA could
not have been a daughter of N and A. But within four years of these
tests, 10 point STR testing was being done, and when results of 10
point STR testing were compared with 6 point STR testsing, the 6 point
STR tests were shown conclusively to have given both false positive
and negative results-in other words, conclusions based on 6 point STR
tests were proved faulty. In 1999, the testing had gone from the 6
point STR tests of 1993-94 and the 10 point STR tests of 1998 to 12
point STR tests, the accuracy of which further undermined any 6 point
STR test results. FSS and Gill admitted this in a statement released
in 2000, adding that FSS had changed from the old 6 point STR testing
method to the newer 10 point STR method in 1999 as the old 6 point
tests resulted in false matches and exclusions. In 2000, the STR
tests were up to a 14 point system; in 2001, it was 16 points, and by
2002, the industry standard worldwide in STR testing was 20 point STR
tests. Scientific studies have repeatedly shown that 6 point STR
tests are unreliable and result in false matches and exclusions. The
6 point STR nuclear DNA tests that showed AA could not possibly have
been a daughter of N and A, therefore, are meaningless given the state
of scientific advancement today.

The other tests-the mtDNA match to the Maucher profile and exclusion
when AA was compared to the Hessian mtDNA profile-are now known to be
less reliable than everyone assumed and believed in 1993-94. Last
year, an extensive UK study showed that out of a random 100 persons,
four completely unrelated subjects shared exactly the same mtDNA
profiles; extrapolate that out-40 in 1,000 people, 400 in every 10,000
people, 4,000 in every 100,000 people, 40,000 in every million-and by
the time you get to the present world population, it's easy to see
that the odds of a random mtDNA match-as happened with the AA sample
and the Maucher profile-between two completely unrelated people are
considerable indeed.

With the question of AA not matching the Hessian mtDNA profile, the
possibilities-and explanations-get much more scientific, and
convoluted to the point where I can't adequately express them at the
moment, but the changes in methodology used in 1994 versus 2003 have
been shown to bring about vastly different results in matches and
exclusions. Again, the 2002 UK study, and a 2001 Australian study,
delineate some of these changes and concerns. As I'm not actually yet
up to speed with them, I won't try to express my own unscientific and
limited understanding of them. But I think it is important to point
out again that in this case it is not, at least for me, a question of
contamination or corruption or conspiracy, but rather the evolving
nature of the testing concerned. And it's undeniable that two of the
three planks in the DNA case against AA are now known to have been
either faulty and subject to false matches and exclusions, or have
been shown to be less exclusive than was originally believed.

It's an academic question, sure, but it's a question of history, and
as an historical issue the DNA in the Anderson case isn't definitive
nor is it the last word given the continuing evolutions of science
involved.

By the way, before anyone accuses me of the usual round of names slung
when someone attempts to raise these points-"conspirator," "deluded,"
"fanatic," etc., let me just say, for the record, very clearly, that
to me it is an academic point whether anyone may have survived or not.
I don't have any stake in the outcome, didn't know AA, have no
personal desire one way or the other. Cold as that may sound, it
happens to be true-and lest someone attempt to jump in with some
objection based on our forthcoming book, let me state quite
definitively for the record that it has absolutely nothing to do with
AA or claimants-its 650 pages contain, if I am correct, exactly 4
brief mentions of AA, none of which have anything to do with her case.
I'm interested only in attempting to come to terms with what happened
in 1918, and to me that has absolutely nothing to do with wishing or
hoping or even believing someone may have survived. If they did, hey,
great, but if not, it isn't going to keep me up at night. I'm more
concerned with the accuracy of the history involved, and, as here,
with trying to underscore the problems inherent in what many people
claim to be a closed case.

Greg King
jlk7e
2003-06-25 06:19:23 UTC
Permalink
***@seanet.com (Greg King) wrote in message news:<***@posting.google.com>...

(snip)
Post by Greg King
With the question of AA not matching the Hessian mtDNA profile, the
possibilities-and explanations-get much more scientific, and
convoluted to the point where I can't adequately express them at the
moment, but the changes in methodology used in 1994 versus 2003 have
been shown to bring about vastly different results in matches and
exclusions.
Glad to see I picked the strongest argument to make. Thanks for the
post, it was quite informative. Until someone can "adequately
express" why AA could be Anastasia and yet also not match the Hessian
profile, I'm going to continue to disbelieve the story, but I suppose
I can understand why people who have put so much energy into Mrs.
Anderson's story would be more eager to find possible holes in the
case. I'd also add that even if there are certain inaccuracies in the
other methods, the fact that all three point towards the same thing
seems strongly suggestive to me, while the kind of personal testimony
that seems to be prominent among the evidence for her being Anastasia
remains, to me at least, largely unconvincing. It can be very easy
for someone to believe something, if they want to believe it...
jlk7e
2003-07-01 01:15:13 UTC
Permalink
Post by jlk7e
(snip)
Post by Greg King
With the question of AA not matching the Hessian mtDNA profile, the
possibilities-and explanations-get much more scientific, and
convoluted to the point where I can't adequately express them at the
moment, but the changes in methodology used in 1994 versus 2003 have
been shown to bring about vastly different results in matches and
exclusions.
Glad to see I picked the strongest argument to make. Thanks for the
post, it was quite informative. Until someone can "adequately
express" why AA could be Anastasia and yet also not match the Hessian
profile, I'm going to continue to disbelieve the story, but I suppose
I can understand why people who have put so much energy into Mrs.
Anderson's story would be more eager to find possible holes in the
case. I'd also add that even if there are certain inaccuracies in the
other methods, the fact that all three point towards the same thing
seems strongly suggestive to me, while the kind of personal testimony
that seems to be prominent among the evidence for her being Anastasia
remains, to me at least, largely unconvincing. It can be very easy
for someone to believe something, if they want to believe it...
It can also be just as easy for someone to disbelieve something
because they have decided they do not want to believe it.
Indeed. But that is not evidence of anything. My point is that
testimony from distant family members and others who knew the Grand
Duchesses as to whether or not AA was Anastasia don't impress me much,
either way, as people can convince themselves of anything. That is to
say, whatever a Miss Botkin or Duke of Leuchtenberg or Princess Xenia
may have said does not strike me as a particularly convincing rebuttal
to arguments based on hard physical evidence.
My God, this case is something, isn't it? No matter what one believes
about it. Nineteen years after AA's death it can still arouse such
passions on both sides.
Hmm... it arouses such passions at least partially on the part of
people who seem to have long-term vested interests in the question.
Janet
2003-07-01 07:55:05 UTC
Permalink
Post by jlk7e
Post by jlk7e
(snip)
Post by Greg King
With the question of AA not matching the Hessian mtDNA profile, the
possibilities-and explanations-get much more scientific, and
convoluted to the point where I can't adequately express them at the
moment, but the changes in methodology used in 1994 versus 2003 have
been shown to bring about vastly different results in matches and
exclusions.
Glad to see I picked the strongest argument to make. Thanks for the
post, it was quite informative. Until someone can "adequately
express" why AA could be Anastasia and yet also not match the Hessian
profile, I'm going to continue to disbelieve the story, but I suppose
I can understand why people who have put so much energy into Mrs.
Anderson's story would be more eager to find possible holes in the
case. I'd also add that even if there are certain inaccuracies in the
other methods, the fact that all three point towards the same thing
seems strongly suggestive to me, while the kind of personal testimony
that seems to be prominent among the evidence for her being Anastasia
remains, to me at least, largely unconvincing. It can be very easy
for someone to believe something, if they want to believe it...
It can also be just as easy for someone to disbelieve something
because they have decided they do not want to believe it.
Indeed. But that is not evidence of anything. My point is that
testimony from distant family members and others who knew the Grand
Duchesses as to whether or not AA was Anastasia don't impress me much,
either way, as people can convince themselves of anything. That is to
say, whatever a Miss Botkin or Duke of Leuchtenberg or Princess Xenia
may have said does not strike me as a particularly convincing rebuttal
to arguments based on hard physical evidence.
My God, this case is something, isn't it? No matter what one believes
about it. Nineteen years after AA's death it can still arouse such
passions on both sides.
Hmm... it arouses such passions at least partially on the part of
people who seem to have long-term vested interests in the question.
I'm sorry - could you clarify this last comment, please?

Thanks

Janet
Janet
2003-07-02 19:11:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by jlk7e
(snip)
Post by Janet
Post by jlk7e
Hmm... it arouses such passions at least partially on the part of
people who seem to have long-term vested interests in the question.
I'm sorry - could you clarify this last comment, please?
I mean, many of the people who get into the question here on ATR seem
to be people who have been involved in this question for a long time.
Obviously, Mr. Kurth is the most obvious instance of this, having
written a book about AA, and so forth, but if you look at the archives
of discussions of this it looks like there's a great deal of personal
animosity involved in the discussion, on both sides...
You are very perceptive and I believe quite correct. Anyone coming to
this issue within the last few years can tend to get caught in the
cross-fire of ATR battles from the mid-1990s - whatever their degree
of interest in the AA question

Janet
news.verizon.net
2003-07-02 21:36:14 UTC
Permalink
FYI: Mr. Kurth's involvement with AA goes beyond having written a book --
it's the "and so forth" part that keeps him in her camp. Having known her
and -- even more important -- a lot of the Romanovs of that generation, he
knows that what's been written about her rarely corresponds with what was
said about her in private. He also knows exactly the degree of resemblance
she bore -- physical, mental &, you might say, in "aura" and personality --
to all those she claimed as her relatives.

Just a point. PK
Post by jlk7e
I mean, many of the people who get into the question here on ATR seem
to be people who have been involved in this question for a long time.
Obviously, Mr. Kurth is the most obvious instance of this, having
written a book about AA, and so forth, but if you look at the archives
of discussions of this it looks like there's a great deal of personal
animosity involved in the discussion, on both sides...
Rob Moshein
2003-07-03 01:52:20 UTC
Permalink
Post by news.verizon.net
FYI: Mr. Kurth's involvement with AA goes beyond having written a book --
it's the "and so forth" part that keeps him in her camp. Having known her
and -- even more important -- a lot of the Romanovs of that generation, he
knows that what's been written about her rarely corresponds with what was
said about her in private. He also knows exactly the degree of resemblance
she bore -- physical, mental &, you might say, in "aura" and personality --
to all those she claimed as her relatives.
Just a point. PK
And the scientific evidence proved that, without a doubt, AA was
excluded from the possibility of being a Romanov (see the case I
cited)...but then Peter (as usual) does not and can not cite any
scientific peer review publications to refute the accuracy of the
genetic testing that proved AA was a fraud...
Just a point...RM
Steven Lavallee
2003-06-27 10:48:31 UTC
Permalink
Post by Greg King
let me just say, for the record, very clearly, that
to me it is an academic point whether anyone may have survived or not.
I don't have any stake in the outcome, didn't know AA, have no
personal desire one way or the other.
... to me that has absolutely nothing to do with wishing or
hoping or even believing someone may have survived. If they did, hey,
great, but if not, it isn't going to keep me up at night....
Greg King
So when did you cease to be "a trusted champion and
defender of Anna Anderson?" In a message posted to
ATR in 2000, Peter Kurth wrote of his:
"...trusting Greg and Penny to carry the torch that was
put in our trust in June 1925, in Berlin. I have every
confidence in them. ...No fears or worries -- the cause
is just, and it is ours, her trusted champions and defenders,
to decide before history what the answer is."
Janet
2003-06-27 16:56:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by Steven Lavallee
Post by Greg King
let me just say, for the record, very clearly, that
to me it is an academic point whether anyone may have survived or not.
I don't have any stake in the outcome, didn't know AA, have no
personal desire one way or the other.
... to me that has absolutely nothing to do with wishing or
hoping or even believing someone may have survived. If they did, hey,
great, but if not, it isn't going to keep me up at night....
Greg King
So when did you cease to be "a trusted champion and
defender of Anna Anderson?" In a message posted to
"...trusting Greg and Penny to carry the torch that was
put in our trust in June 1925, in Berlin. I have every
confidence in them. ...No fears or worries -- the cause
is just, and it is ours, her trusted champions and defenders,
to decide before history what the answer is."
Steven, I think you are missing the point of what Greg wrote. In
clarifying for another poster the issues over the reliability of the
DNA evidence, he is giving a series of externally verifiable facts
which point to no particular conclusion.

Put it another way: I might say to you here and now: "The Gill mtDNA
profile on Nicholas II was incorrect." Why do I say this? Is it
because I am a conspiracy theorist who thinks the Koptiaki grave was
an elaborate fake by the Russian government and it wasn't the Romanovs
in there? Evidently not, since, given the combination of
anthropological and documentary and circumstantial evidence I have no
doubt at all that the grave was genuine. So I say this because it at
this moment in time it seems to be true, and we know it to be true
because Dr Nagai's more recent results – verified, unlike Gill's, by
peer review – differed at a number of points, and I'd look a complete
idiot if I continued to insist as I did pre-Nagai "Oh, the DNA was the
clincher; Gill's results settled the question for ever and ever".
It does not, however, cease to be true that the profile was flawed if
someone who DOES believe that the grave was a fake makes the same
point. Regardless of what one infers from it the objective fact
stands.
I should probably tell you something else: I have a tenuous
professional connection to Gill and his colleagues and the FSS (trade
union thing, to be exact) and I am HIGHLY defensive of their work.
Reading some of the sheer nonsense talked about them here and there by
lay AA fans on the internet (how it was all a "put-up job", a
conspiracy, they were bought by this, bought by that, blah, blah,
blah) it's as much as I can do to bring myself to either ignore or be
polite to some of the perpetrators. This also makes me a viciously
difficult person to convince when it comes to even looking at
scientific reasons why their work might now be unreliable (as Greg of
all people well knows): so if you finally hear me say it, believe me,
it ain't because I give two hoots about Anna Anderson.

So I am uncertain to what end you bring up Peter Kurth's three year
old post. What point are you trying to make? I thought Greg had made
his own views here and now in 2003 quite clear?

Janet
Steven Lavallee
2003-06-28 12:24:03 UTC
Permalink
Post by Janet
Steven, I think you are missing the point of what Greg wrote. In
clarifying for another poster the issues over the reliability of the
DNA evidence, he is giving a series of externally verifiable facts
which point to no particular conclusion.
Oh, not at all, Janet. I got that. And I assure you that I read and
digested his whole thoughtfully written post. However, it was another
lesser point that Greg King made which made me blink-- the clear
emphasis on his utter indifference as regards Anna Anderson and
survival theories.

I found this worthy of comment, since a few short years ago
Mr. Kurth announced that he had given over much of his research
material to Greg and Penny in order that they could assume "the torch
that was put in our trust in June 1925, in Berlin." As he included
them under the umbrella of "her trusted champions and defenders,"
and since neither of them posted anything by way of refutation,
I had assumed that Mr. Kurth's announcement was an accurate
characterization of Greg and Penny as "champions" of AA's cause.
If that was, or is now not the case, it's certainly worth clarifying.

As to the rest of Mr. King's post, it appears he is sincerely
committed to keeping an open mind as best he can in the course
of his research and its presentation. That, combined with his
apparent (albeit belated) refutation of the idea that he is some sort
of heir apparent to the role of AA "champion and defender,"
is something to applaud. It removes the taint of partisanship,
and allows us to approach Greg's upcoming book with some
reciprocal measure of good faith.
Peter Kurth
2003-06-28 03:24:37 UTC
Permalink
in article ***@posting.google.com, Steven Lavallee
at ***@home.com wrote on 6/27/03 6:48 AM:

Re: Greg King

Steven, you are an incredible asshole and, what is more, a cad. I said that
I trust Greg and Penny to carry the torch -- you know, of honest inquiry.
(No, probably you don't.) They can and will reach their own conclusions,
and it is still the case that, whether or they find themselves among "her
trusted champions and defenders," the word "trusting" ought to give you a
clue that I had in mind those people who knew her while she was alive.

Your callous, ugly and sadistic attitude toward this unfortunate woman has
never ceased to amaze and disgust me. You are a true representative of the
vipers she had to deal with all her life.

Flame away -- gnat! PK
Post by Steven Lavallee
So when did you cease to be "a trusted champion and
defender of Anna Anderson?" In a message posted to
"...trusting Greg and Penny to carry the torch that was
put in our trust in June 1925, in Berlin. I have every
confidence in them. ...No fears or worries -- the cause
is just, and it is ours, her trusted champions and defenders,
to decide before history what the answer is."
--
To get random signatures put text files into a folder called ³Random
Signatures² into your Preferences folder.
Rob Moshein
2003-06-29 18:19:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by jlk7e
Uh huh... so older methods of DNA testing can result in showing that
the daughter of one woman and that woman's sister's daughter's son can
have completely different mitochondrial DNA? Whatever your personal
experiences with Anna Anderson, that's complete bullshit, no matter
what advances DNA testing has undergone in the past ten years.
Not so, genius. If the samples are faulty (which some of them are),
You have argued that the Romanov samples are faulty. I am not arguing
about that at all. I was concerned here only with the comparison of
the Anna Anderson DNA with that of the Duke of Edinburgh. That alone,
without bringing anything else into it, proves that she was not
Anastasia. The rest is gravy (which also supports the case of her not
being Anastasia, but perhaps not as strongly).
and if
the mtDNA testing methods of ten years ago are now known to give a high
percentage of false positive results (which they do),
What percentage is that? And I am not arguing on the basis of
possible "false positives" but on the basis of the negative result
comparing Anna Anderson's DNA with that of the Duke of Edinburgh.
Which did not match. That's not a false positive, or am I missing
something?
and if there's a
question about the shared maternal descent of "one woman and that woman's
sister's daughter's son" (which there definitely is),
...
Post by jlk7e
No spluttering and spewing here, as you haven't addressed my point at
all.
Here is WHY they will never address your point, they make stuff up to
support their case, without addressing the facts. Sorry for the length
of this post, but I for one am truly sick and tired of them saying
that this scientific analysis is "faulty" "unreliable" and
"inadmissable in courts" when it is WITHOUT DOUBT not the case. In
fact, one of the scientists who testified in this case, Dr. Terry
Melton, who determined by her mtdna research that AA was NOT GD
Anastasia is expressly found to be a reliable and credible witness
here, her work in the AA case is found to be STILL valid and reliable,
and this Court legally finds that her research is STILL reliable,
credible and admissable. I specifically wish to point out the
numerous times where each scientist testified UNDER OATH that they
were unaware of any scientific peer review studies which disagreed
with the accuracy and vailidity of their mtdna analyses and
methodology, as well as the numerous jurisditions which have found
this mtdna reseach admissible in evidence. This decision is from
September 2000 and has NOT been overturned:

PEOPLE v. KLINGER
713 N.Y.S.2d 823
N.Y.Co.Ct., 2000
Sept. 5, 2000
Judge Brown
PEOPLE v. MICHAEL KLINGER and RAYMOND KLINGER QDS:76703137—The
following
constitutes the opinion, decision and order of the court.
***
By previous order of the Honorable Paul E. Kowtna, this court
conducted a Frye hearing on June 6, 2000 and June 13, 2000, to
determine the admissibility of mitochondrial DNA evidence at the trial
of the above-captioned Indictment.
At the hearing, the court heard testimony from two witnesses, Bruce
Budowle, Ph.D., a Senior Scientist with the Federal Bureau of
Investigation, and Terry Melton, PhD., President of Mitotyping
Technologies, LLC.
The court finds that Dr, Budowle and Dr. Melton were credible
witnesses.
The court makes the following conclusions of law:
The Court of Appeals has held that "[t]he long recognized rule of Frye
v. United States, 293 F. 1013, is that expert testimony based on
scientific principles or procedures is admissible but only after a
principle or procedure has 'gained general acceptance' in its
specified
field". In Frye (supra at 1014) the court stated:
"Just when a scientific principle or discovery crosses the line
between the
experimental and demonstrable stages is difficult to define. Somewhere
in
this twilight zone the evidential force of the principle must be
recognized,
and while courts will go a long way in admitting expert testimony
deduced
from a well-recognized scientific principle or discovery, the thing
from
which the deduction is made must be sufficiently established to have
gained general acceptance in the particular field in which it belongs"
(emphasis supplied)." (People v. Wesley, 83 NY2d 417).
"This Court has noted that the particular procedure need not be
'unanimously indorsed' by the scientific community but must be
'generally acceptable as reliable' (see People v. Middleton, 54 NY2d
42, 49). Thus the issue here concerns the acceptance by the relevant
scientific community of the reliability of DNA evidence." (People v.
Wesley, supra at 423).
"Once Frye has been satisfied, the question is 'whether the accepted
techniques were employed by the experts in this case" (People v.
Wesley, supra, citing People v. Middleton, 54 NY2d at 50). The focus
moves from the general reliability of the procedures followed to
generate the evidence proffered and whether they establish a
foundation for the reception of the evidence at trial. The trial court
determines, as a preliminary matter of law, whether an adequate
foundation for the admissibility of this particular evidence has been
established." (People v. Wesley, supra at 429).
The first witness was Dr. Bruce Budowle. Dr. Budowle has been employed
by the FBI for 17 years and has been a Senior Scientist for the past
one and a half to two years. He has a Ph.D. in genetics and a
Bachelor's Degree in biology, Dr. Budowle is a member of numerous
professional organizations including the American Academy of Forensic
Sciences and the International Society of Forensic Genetics. He has
published approximately 200-250 articles or materials relating to DNA
analysis, nine of those articles regarding mitochondrial DNA
(hereinafter "mtDNA"), The majority of these articles were subject to
peer review. Dr. Budowle has presented his research and findings to
the
International Symposium of Human Identification on nine separate
occasions. He explained that a symposium is a way to bring the
scientific community together so theycan exchange ideas. He also
serves on numerous journal and editorial boards both in this country
and abroad. Dr. Budowle has received numerous honors and awards
including the Forensic Scientist of the Year Award. He teaches a
course on mtDNA typing for the FBI and for Forensic Institute, which
is for national and international students. Dr. Budowle
has been qualified on numerous occasions as an expert witness in
molecular biology, genetics, population genetics, statistics and
forensic science in state, local and federal courts. He stated that he
has testified in more than half of the states in this country. Dr,
Budowle has also been qualified as an expert on mtDNA in New York,
Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Maryland and California.
As early as 1989, Dr. Budowle co-wrote a chapter of a book describing
mtDNA as a possible genetic tool. In October of 1993, he co-wrote one
of the first guidelines for the use of mtDNA sequencing in forensic
science. In 1995, he co-wrote a peer review journal
describing the procedure that was developed at the FBI for the
extraction, amplification and sequencing of mtDNA from human hair
shafts, Also, in 1995, a peer review article was co-written by him on
the validation of the aforesaid procedures for their application to
case work. An article was also co-written by Dr. Budowle, which was
published in 1997, that described a phenomenon observed in mtDNA
called heteroplasmy. Dr. Budowle also co-wrote a peer review article
for publication where a mtDNA study was done with crab
lice. He determined that this study was a valuable way of looking at
the DNA environment to determine whether its analysis produces a
reliable result. In 1999, he co-wrote a peer review journal article
describing some of the population data from a portion of the data
bases that demonstrates, by inference, the rarity of the mtDNA type
among unrelated individuals. Finally, Dr. Budowle is on the DNA
Commission of the International Society for Forensic Genetics. He was
one of 13 members of the DNA Commission who published an
editorial which contained guidelines for typing mtDNA.
***
MtDNA is much heartier than nuclear DNA. For example, old bones and
teeth that have been exposed to the environment may still have
sufficient quantity for mtDNA typing where nuclear DNA typing would
fail to give a result, There are, however, differences between the two
types of DNA. First, in nuclear DNA, you inherit half from your mother
and half from your father. In mtDNA, you inherit all of it from
your mother. Second, instead of being billions of letters long, the
mtDNA strand is 16,569 letters long. Further, mtDNA is circular rather
than linear. Dr. Budowle opined that the circular strands may actually
protect the mtDNA from being degraded.
***
the counting method is used to predict how common a particular
profile is in mtDNA. Next, the technician can go further by
calculating a confidence level based upon a statistical formula
established early in the twentieth century. The lab, in essence, would
calculate a confidence interval around the estimated frequency based
on the size of the database. This formula is based upon bell-shaped
distribution theories that have been in existence since the
mid-eighteenth century. A confidence level, based upon a statistical
analysis, creates an upper bound to the benefit of the accused, and
then provides that they have confidence that the frequency is no
higher than this amount,

Dr. Budowle is not aware of any peer review article that disagrees
with this method of calculation.

MtDNA research began at the FBI in 1992 and testing commenced in 1996.
Numerous procedures and protocols were developed that were subject to
peer review. Moreover, validation studies for mtDNA have been
published and subject to peer review.
Apparently, there have been no peer review articles that disagree with
the FBI validation studies. Rather, more articles were written in the
scientific community using the same procedures. Further, protocols are
subject to validation studies. The protocols of the different labs are
quite similar. Some labs, like Mitotyping Technologies, use the FBI
protocols and make minor adjustments. Some labs use the FBI protocols
without change and others create their own in the same fashion as did
the FBI. There are approximately a half dozen labs in the United
States that conduct mtDNA analysis. Two of those labs are
non-commercial—the FBI lab and the Armed Forces Institute of
Pathology. There are over 50 labs in Europe that do mtDNA analysis.
MtDNA is also used in anthropology, in identifying war remains, in
clinical diagnosis to exonerate subjects and repatriating children
that have been separated from their families. Dr. Budowle testified
that the testing procedures used for mtDNA profiling, i.e.,
extraction, the ability to quantitate and the PCR method, are the same
as those used for nuclear DNA
profiling. "The reliability of the PCR method for nuclear DNA has
gained general acceptance in the scientific community." (People v.
Lin, 267 AD2d 256; see also People v. Morales, 227 AD2d 648; People v.
Garcia, 190 AD2d 749). It is only in the typing where there is a
slight divergence between these two types of DNA. Over 1,000 articles
have been written with respect to mtDNA. Dr. Budowle testified that it
is
"a well-described genetic marker." Numerous validation studies were
published and subject to peer review. Dr. Budowle also stated that the
use of mtDNA for forensic identity testing is based upon universally
accepted techniques and has been subject to peer
review. Dr. Budowle testified that he knew of no peer review articles
that state the aforesaid process, as testified to, is not a
scientifically reliable process. He testified that the underlying
principles of mtDNA are generally accepted by the relevant scientific
community. Further, the statistical formulas used in determining
whether a profile is rare or common are acceptable in the scientific
community. Moreover, he knew of no peer review articles that state
that this application of statistics is not a reliable interpretation
of mtDNA. Further, Dr. Budowle testified that mtDNA is scientifically
reliable even though the heteroplasmy exists. He does not believe that
the existence of heteroplasmy makes it "an unreliable issue." He also
does not consider contamination to be a problem as long as it is
monitored and the proper controls are used. Further, the lab keeps an
inventory of the sequences of all the people in the laboratory which
would be a source of possible
contamination.
Dr. Terry Melton has been working with mtDNA since 1991. She has a
Ph.D. from Penn State University in genetics. She has performed
hundreds of DNA analyses and thousands of PCR amplifications. She
testified that her lab exclusively performs mtDNA analysis. One
high profile analysis that she was involved with was the claim of Anna
Anderson that she was the remaining living child of the Romanov
family. By the use of mtDNA, it was determined that she was not the
Grand Duchess Anastasia. Dr. Melton has been employed for the past two
years by Mitotyping Technologies, a commercial laboratory in
Pennsylvania, which conducts mtDNA analysis. She has been studying and
working with mtDNA for approximately nine years. Dr. Melton is a
member of Sigma Xi, a research society, and a provisional member of
the Academy of Forensic Sciences and she has published approximately
eleven articles in the area of mtDNA. Dr. Melton has published
numerous papers which were subject to peer review. One of the areas in
which she has been published is the examination of population
variations using mtDNA as a forensic marker. She was an invited
speaker at numerous conferences including the American Academy of
Forensic Sciences and the National Institute of Justice for the First
International Conference on Forensic Human Identification. Dr. Melton
has testified as an expert in the fields of genetics, PCR and mtDNA in
the state and federal courts in five states.

Like Dr. Budowle, Dr. Melton explained the procedures and protocols
that her lab follows in order to prevent contamination and maintain
the integrity of the achieved results. In order to prevent
heteroplasmy, the technician makes sure that the negative controls are
free of contamination. Her lab uses two types of negative controls,
one which goes with the sample from the moment of extraction through
the complete process. The other one is used for PCR amplification. The
latter control will tell the technician if contamination exists, She
also testified that both the French and the Italians have created
their own databases. If you totaled the databases from around the
world, the sequences would be close to eight thousand. Further, like
Dr. Budowle, Dr. Melton uses a standard statistical formula used by
the scientific community in order to obtain a confidence interval. Dr.
Melton testified that she is unaware of any peer review articles in
disagreement with
the method used by her lab with respect to the analysis and
interpretation of mtDNA. She testified that there is no process for
mtDNA analysis that is not generally accepted as a valid scientific
procedure. The whole process has been subject to peer review. Further,
the
statistical formula for mtDNA is generally accepted by the scientific
community. Dr. Melton testified that there were no peer review
articles stating that this statistical formula or method was not a
reliable interpretation of the mtDNA database. She also testified that
counting method, the confidence interval approach and the likelihood
calculation are each equally valid.

With respect to the database, Dr. Melton testified that, as it grows
in size, the frequency estimates for individual mtDNA profiles will
become more and more refined leading to increasingly reliable
population frequency calculations. Based upon the statistical
methodology, the results create a confidence interval of either 95 or
99 percent. The 95 percent confidence interval is standard for most
people, while the 99 percent confidence interval is slightly more
conservative. Moreover, the database can wily show an estimate since
every person in the world cannot be typed. Further, the database as it
is presently constituted is sufficient to provide reliable population
frequency estimates. The statistical
result of the confidence interval is that the lab is confident that
the true frequency in the population falls somewhere within that
range. So, in a 95 percent confidence interval, there is only an
uncertainty of 5 percent.

Dr. Melton testified that, in her opinion, the underlying principles
of mtDNA, the principles of mtDNA analysis and the statistical methods
as applied to mtDNA are generally accepted as reliable in the
scientific community.

Apparently the use of mtDNA as a forensic tool and its general
acceptance as reliable in the scientific community is one of first
impression in this state. This court's research reveals only one
unreported case in New York County Supreme Court which deals with the
reliability in the scientific community of mtDNA. On May 11, 2000, in
the case of People v. Edmund Ko, Justice Harold Beeler rendered an
oral decision on the record after a Frye Hearing with respect to the
reliability of mtDNA in the scientific community. Like this case, he
discussed his concerns with respect to contamination and heteroplasmy
which he found should be subject to the dictates of cross-examination.
Justice Beeler did not invalidate the procedures of mtDNA testing and
the reliability of this procedure. His determination was that
heteroplasmy has to be considered and factored in when making the
ultimate interpretation of the issues, involved. Further, he found the
counting method to be appropriate and that it would assist the jury to
a certain extent. He held open the possibility of the use of
population statistics after the court had received additional
testimony. Justice Beeler gave great credence to Dr. Budowle's
testimony, who was one of the witnesses in the case before him, and
determined that his testimony reflects the pulse of the scientific
community in this area.

MtDNA has been found scientifically reliable in other jurisdictions.
In the case of United States of America v. Douglas Turns, United
States District Court Judge James L. Graham (Southern District of
Ohio-Eastern division January 24, 2000) found that MtDNA testing
satisfied the standard set forth in Daubert v Merrell Dow
Pharmaceuticals, 509 U.S. 579 which requires the trial court to
determine whether the reasoning or methodology underlying the
testimony is scientifically valid and can be applied to the facts in
issue. Judge Graham found that the significant difference between
mtDNA and nuclear DNA is that mtDNA has significantly fewer numbers of
base pairs in the DNA helix, He found that the statistical analysis is
based upon a formula which is apparently recognized in the scientific
community and used in a variety of scientific contexts. Judge Graham
determined that this statistical method is an acceptable and reliable
estimate of probability. The Tennessee Criminal Appeal Court in the
case of State of Tennessee v. Randall Scott, 1999 WL 547460, which
follows the Daubert rule, determined that it was not error to admit
mtDNA without a hearing. Further, in Tennessee, the applicable case
law does not require a finding of scientific reliability. (See also
State of Tennessee v. Paul William Ware, 1999 WL 235592). In the case
of People v. Kevin Carter Holtzer (Circuit Court State of Michigan,
June 10, 1999) Judge Thomas Power determined, after an evidentiary
hearing, that mtDNA has achieved general scientific acceptance for
reliability as required by the Davis-Frye standard. In South Carolina,
the High Court found no error by the admittance of mtDNA (See State v.
Donney S. Council, 335 S.C. 1, 515 S.E. 2d 508) according to its
standard. The standard used by the courts of South Carolina is whether
the evidence will assist the trier of facts, whether the expert is
qualified and whether the underlying science is reliable. Further, the
probative value must outweigh any prejudicial effect. The Court of
Appeals of North Carolina also found no error by the admittance by the
trial court of mtDNA (See State v. Lamont ClaxtonUnderwood, 134 N.C.
App, 533, 518 S.E.2d 231). In North Carolina, a scientific method is
admissible at trial if it is scientifically reliable and these courts
do not exclusively adhere to the Frye standard. Rather, the courts in
North Carolina follow the facts as outlined by the United States
Supreme Court in Daubert when determining whether scientific evidence
is reliable, to wit: 1) whether the theory or technique can be or has
been tested, 2) whether the theory has been subject to peer review, 3)
whether the theory has been submitted to the scrutiny of the
scientific community, 4) the known or potential rate of error, and 5)
the general acceptance in the relevant scientific community. MtDNA has
been found admissible in the state of Maryland in that it has been
determined to be generally accepted in the relevant scientific
community (State v. Scotland Eugene Williams, Circuit Court for Anne
Arundel County, Maryland, Judge Pamela L. North, May 6, 1998; affirmed
Court of Special Appeal of Maryland, April 12, 2000). Further, the
courts of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania have determined that mtDNA
has gained general acceptance in the relevant scientific community
pursuant to a Frye standard. (See Commonwealth v. Andrew Dillon,
January 30, 1998, Court of Common Pleas of LackawanaCounty;
Commonwealth v. Patricia Lynne Rorrer, January 20, 1998, Court of
Common Pleas of Lehigh County, affirmed Superior Court of
Pennsylvania, October 22, 1999). Likewise, a judge in California has
found that the mtDNA process is generally acceptable in the applicable
scientific community. (People v. Christian Guillermo Torres, September
21, 1999, Superior Court of California for the County of Orange).

The court finds that the credible evidence adduced at the hearing
established that mtDTA analysis and interpretations are generally
accepted as reliable in the scientific community and that the
procedures followed in this case establish a foundation for admission
of such evidence. The evidence has sufficiently established that the
analyses and interpretations of mtDNA has gained general acceptance in
the community of scientists that work in this field. The existence of
contamination and heteroplasmy do not affect the reliability of the
scientific procedure and these issues, which are subj ect to
cross-examination at the time of trial, do not invalidate the
procedures of mtDNA testing. Although both Dr. Budowle and Dr. Melton
testified that mtDNA can not be the unique identifier that nuclear DNA
can achieve, this conclusion, however, does not invalidate the
accuracy of the procedure and whether it is acceptable in the relevant
scientific community.

This court finds that many of the procedures used in analyzing mtDNA
are the same as those used in analyzing nuclear DNA. Further, the
statistical methods used by the technician in creating the upper
bounds of the confidence interval are basic statistical methods that
have been found generally accepted in the relevant scientific
community.

Moreover, mtDNA procedures have been subject to peer review and Dr.
Budowle testified that he knew of no peer review articles that state
that the aforesaid process and statistical methods were not
scientifically reliable. In addition, Dr. Melton testified that the
whole process has been subject to peer review and that she is unaware
of any peer review articles in disagreement with the methods used by
her lab with respect to analysis, interpretation and use of the
statistical formulas.

Therefore, the court will permit the People to present expert
testimony at trial regarding the mtDNA analysis and the results
determined therefrom.

The foregoing constitutes the opinion, decision and order of the
court.
Dee Dee
2003-06-30 22:44:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by Rob Moshein
Post by jlk7e
Uh huh... so older methods of DNA testing can result in showing that
the daughter of one woman and that woman's sister's daughter's son can
have completely different mitochondrial DNA? Whatever your personal
experiences with Anna Anderson, that's complete bullshit, no matter
what advances DNA testing has undergone in the past ten years.
Not so, genius. If the samples are faulty (which some of them are),
You have argued that the Romanov samples are faulty. I am not arguing
about that at all. I was concerned here only with the comparison of
the Anna Anderson DNA with that of the Duke of Edinburgh. That alone,
without bringing anything else into it, proves that she was not
Anastasia. The rest is gravy (which also supports the case of her not
being Anastasia, but perhaps not as strongly).
and if
the mtDNA testing methods of ten years ago are now known to give a high
percentage of false positive results (which they do),
What percentage is that? And I am not arguing on the basis of
possible "false positives" but on the basis of the negative result
comparing Anna Anderson's DNA with that of the Duke of Edinburgh.
Which did not match. That's not a false positive, or am I missing
something?
and if there's a
question about the shared maternal descent of "one woman and that woman's
sister's daughter's son" (which there definitely is),
...
Post by jlk7e
No spluttering and spewing here, as you haven't addressed my point at
all.
Here is WHY they will never address your point, they make stuff up to
support their case, without addressing the facts. Sorry for the length
of this post, but I for one am truly sick and tired of them saying
that this scientific analysis is "faulty" "unreliable" and
"inadmissable in courts" when it is WITHOUT DOUBT not the case. In
fact, one of the scientists who testified in this case, Dr. Terry
Melton, who determined by her mtdna research that AA was NOT GD
Anastasia is expressly found to be a reliable and credible witness
here, her work in the AA case is found to be STILL valid and reliable,
and this Court legally finds that her research is STILL reliable,
credible and admissable. I specifically wish to point out the
numerous times where each scientist testified UNDER OATH that they
were unaware of any scientific peer review studies which disagreed
with the accuracy and vailidity of their mtdna analyses and
methodology, as well as the numerous jurisditions which have found
this mtdna reseach admissible in evidence. This decision is from
PEOPLE v. KLINGER
713 N.Y.S.2d 823
N.Y.Co.Ct., 2000
Sept. 5, 2000
Judge Brown
PEOPLE v. MICHAEL KLINGER and RAYMOND KLINGER QDS:76703137?The
following
constitutes the opinion, decision and order of the court.
***
By previous order of the Honorable Paul E. Kowtna, this court
conducted a Frye hearing on June 6, 2000 and June 13, 2000, to
determine the admissibility of mitochondrial DNA evidence at the trial
of the above-captioned Indictment.
At the hearing, the court heard testimony from two witnesses, Bruce
Budowle, Ph.D., a Senior Scientist with the Federal Bureau of
Investigation, and Terry Melton, PhD., President of Mitotyping
Technologies, LLC.
The court finds that Dr, Budowle and Dr. Melton were credible
witnesses.
The Court of Appeals has held that "[t]he long recognized rule of Frye
v. United States, 293 F. 1013, is that expert testimony based on
scientific principles or procedures is admissible but only after a
principle or procedure has 'gained general acceptance' in its
specified
"Just when a scientific principle or discovery crosses the line
between the
experimental and demonstrable stages is difficult to define. Somewhere
in
this twilight zone the evidential force of the principle must be
recognized,
and while courts will go a long way in admitting expert testimony
deduced
from a well-recognized scientific principle or discovery, the thing
from
which the deduction is made must be sufficiently established to have
gained general acceptance in the particular field in which it belongs"
(emphasis supplied)." (People v. Wesley, 83 NY2d 417).
"This Court has noted that the particular procedure need not be
'unanimously indorsed' by the scientific community but must be
'generally acceptable as reliable' (see People v. Middleton, 54 NY2d
42, 49). Thus the issue here concerns the acceptance by the relevant
scientific community of the reliability of DNA evidence." (People v.
Wesley, supra at 423).
"Once Frye has been satisfied, the question is 'whether the accepted
techniques were employed by the experts in this case" (People v.
Wesley, supra, citing People v. Middleton, 54 NY2d at 50). The focus
moves from the general reliability of the procedures followed to
generate the evidence proffered and whether they establish a
foundation for the reception of the evidence at trial. The trial court
determines, as a preliminary matter of law, whether an adequate
foundation for the admissibility of this particular evidence has been
established." (People v. Wesley, supra at 429).
The first witness was Dr. Bruce Budowle. Dr. Budowle has been employed
by the FBI for 17 years and has been a Senior Scientist for the past
one and a half to two years. He has a Ph.D. in genetics and a
Bachelor's Degree in biology, Dr. Budowle is a member of numerous
professional organizations including the American Academy of Forensic
Sciences and the International Society of Forensic Genetics. He has
published approximately 200-250 articles or materials relating to DNA
analysis, nine of those articles regarding mitochondrial DNA
(hereinafter "mtDNA"), The majority of these articles were subject to
peer review. Dr. Budowle has presented his research and findings to
the
International Symposium of Human Identification on nine separate
occasions. He explained that a symposium is a way to bring the
scientific community together so theycan exchange ideas. He also
serves on numerous journal and editorial boards both in this country
and abroad. Dr. Budowle has received numerous honors and awards
including the Forensic Scientist of the Year Award. He teaches a
course on mtDNA typing for the FBI and for Forensic Institute, which
is for national and international students. Dr. Budowle
has been qualified on numerous occasions as an expert witness in
molecular biology, genetics, population genetics, statistics and
forensic science in state, local and federal courts. He stated that he
has testified in more than half of the states in this country. Dr,
Budowle has also been qualified as an expert on mtDNA in New York,
Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Maryland and California.
As early as 1989, Dr. Budowle co-wrote a chapter of a book describing
mtDNA as a possible genetic tool. In October of 1993, he co-wrote one
of the first guidelines for the use of mtDNA sequencing in forensic
science. In 1995, he co-wrote a peer review journal
describing the procedure that was developed at the FBI for the
extraction, amplification and sequencing of mtDNA from human hair
shafts, Also, in 1995, a peer review article was co-written by him on
the validation of the aforesaid procedures for their application to
case work. An article was also co-written by Dr. Budowle, which was
published in 1997, that described a phenomenon observed in mtDNA
called heteroplasmy. Dr. Budowle also co-wrote a peer review article
for publication where a mtDNA study was done with crab
lice. He determined that this study was a valuable way of looking at
the DNA environment to determine whether its analysis produces a
reliable result. In 1999, he co-wrote a peer review journal article
describing some of the population data from a portion of the data
bases that demonstrates, by inference, the rarity of the mtDNA type
among unrelated individuals. Finally, Dr. Budowle is on the DNA
Commission of the International Society for Forensic Genetics. He was
one of 13 members of the DNA Commission who published an
editorial which contained guidelines for typing mtDNA.
***
MtDNA is much heartier than nuclear DNA. For example, old bones and
teeth that have been exposed to the environment may still have
sufficient quantity for mtDNA typing where nuclear DNA typing would
fail to give a result, There are, however, differences between the two
types of DNA. First, in nuclear DNA, you inherit half from your mother
and half from your father. In mtDNA, you inherit all of it from
your mother. Second, instead of being billions of letters long, the
mtDNA strand is 16,569 letters long. Further, mtDNA is circular rather
than linear. Dr. Budowle opined that the circular strands may actually
protect the mtDNA from being degraded.
***
the counting method is used to predict how common a particular
profile is in mtDNA. Next, the technician can go further by
calculating a confidence level based upon a statistical formula
established early in the twentieth century. The lab, in essence, would
calculate a confidence interval around the estimated frequency based
on the size of the database. This formula is based upon bell-shaped
distribution theories that have been in existence since the
mid-eighteenth century. A confidence level, based upon a statistical
analysis, creates an upper bound to the benefit of the accused, and
then provides that they have confidence that the frequency is no
higher than this amount,
Dr. Budowle is not aware of any peer review article that disagrees
with this method of calculation.
MtDNA research began at the FBI in 1992 and testing commenced in 1996.
Numerous procedures and protocols were developed that were subject to
peer review. Moreover, validation studies for mtDNA have been
published and subject to peer review.
Apparently, there have been no peer review articles that disagree with
the FBI validation studies. Rather, more articles were written in the
scientific community using the same procedures. Further, protocols are
subject to validation studies. The protocols of the different labs are
quite similar. Some labs, like Mitotyping Technologies, use the FBI
protocols and make minor adjustments. Some labs use the FBI protocols
without change and others create their own in the same fashion as did
the FBI. There are approximately a half dozen labs in the United
States that conduct mtDNA analysis. Two of those labs are
non-commercial?the FBI lab and the Armed Forces Institute of
Pathology. There are over 50 labs in Europe that do mtDNA analysis.
MtDNA is also used in anthropology, in identifying war remains, in
clinical diagnosis to exonerate subjects and repatriating children
that have been separated from their families. Dr. Budowle testified
that the testing procedures used for mtDNA profiling, i.e.,
extraction, the ability to quantitate and the PCR method, are the same
as those used for nuclear DNA
profiling. "The reliability of the PCR method for nuclear DNA has
gained general acceptance in the scientific community." (People v.
Lin, 267 AD2d 256; see also People v. Morales, 227 AD2d 648; People v.
Garcia, 190 AD2d 749). It is only in the typing where there is a
slight divergence between these two types of DNA. Over 1,000 articles
have been written with respect to mtDNA. Dr. Budowle testified that it
is
"a well-described genetic marker." Numerous validation studies were
published and subject to peer review. Dr. Budowle also stated that the
use of mtDNA for forensic identity testing is based upon universally
accepted techniques and has been subject to peer
review. Dr. Budowle testified that he knew of no peer review articles
that state the aforesaid process, as testified to, is not a
scientifically reliable process. He testified that the underlying
principles of mtDNA are generally accepted by the relevant scientific
community. Further, the statistical formulas used in determining
whether a profile is rare or common are acceptable in the scientific
community. Moreover, he knew of no peer review articles that state
that this application of statistics is not a reliable interpretation
of mtDNA. Further, Dr. Budowle testified that mtDNA is scientifically
reliable even though the heteroplasmy exists. He does not believe that
the existence of heteroplasmy makes it "an unreliable issue." He also
does not consider contamination to be a problem as long as it is
monitored and the proper controls are used. Further, the lab keeps an
inventory of the sequences of all the people in the laboratory which
would be a source of possible
contamination.
Dr. Terry Melton has been working with mtDNA since 1991. She has a
Ph.D. from Penn State University in genetics. She has performed
hundreds of DNA analyses and thousands of PCR amplifications. She
testified that her lab exclusively performs mtDNA analysis. One
high profile analysis that she was involved with was the claim of Anna
Anderson that she was the remaining living child of the Romanov
family. By the use of mtDNA, it was determined that she was not the
Grand Duchess Anastasia. Dr. Melton has been employed for the past two
years by Mitotyping Technologies, a commercial laboratory in
Pennsylvania, which conducts mtDNA analysis. She has been studying and
working with mtDNA for approximately nine years. Dr. Melton is a
member of Sigma Xi, a research society, and a provisional member of
the Academy of Forensic Sciences and she has published approximately
eleven articles in the area of mtDNA. Dr. Melton has published
numerous papers which were subject to peer review. One of the areas in
which she has been published is the examination of population
variations using mtDNA as a forensic marker. She was an invited
speaker at numerous conferences including the American Academy of
Forensic Sciences and the National Institute of Justice for the First
International Conference on Forensic Human Identification. Dr. Melton
has testified as an expert in the fields of genetics, PCR and mtDNA in
the state and federal courts in five states.
Like Dr. Budowle, Dr. Melton explained the procedures and protocols
that her lab follows in order to prevent contamination and maintain
the integrity of the achieved results. In order to prevent
heteroplasmy, the technician makes sure that the negative controls are
free of contamination. Her lab uses two types of negative controls,
one which goes with the sample from the moment of extraction through
the complete process. The other one is used for PCR amplification. The
latter control will tell the technician if contamination exists, She
also testified that both the French and the Italians have created
their own databases. If you totaled the databases from around the
world, the sequences would be close to eight thousand. Further, like
Dr. Budowle, Dr. Melton uses a standard statistical formula used by
the scientific community in order to obtain a confidence interval. Dr.
Melton testified that she is unaware of any peer review articles in
disagreement with
the method used by her lab with respect to the analysis and
interpretation of mtDNA. She testified that there is no process for
mtDNA analysis that is not generally accepted as a valid scientific
procedure. The whole process has been subject to peer review. Further,
the
statistical formula for mtDNA is generally accepted by the scientific
community. Dr. Melton testified that there were no peer review
articles stating that this statistical formula or method was not a
reliable interpretation of the mtDNA database. She also testified that
counting method, the confidence interval approach and the likelihood
calculation are each equally valid.
With respect to the database, Dr. Melton testified that, as it grows
in size, the frequency estimates for individual mtDNA profiles will
become more and more refined leading to increasingly reliable
population frequency calculations. Based upon the statistical
methodology, the results create a confidence interval of either 95 or
99 percent. The 95 percent confidence interval is standard for most
people, while the 99 percent confidence interval is slightly more
conservative. Moreover, the database can wily show an estimate since
every person in the world cannot be typed. Further, the database as it
is presently constituted is sufficient to provide reliable population
frequency estimates. The statistical
result of the confidence interval is that the lab is confident that
the true frequency in the population falls somewhere within that
range. So, in a 95 percent confidence interval, there is only an
uncertainty of 5 percent.
Dr. Melton testified that, in her opinion, the underlying principles
of mtDNA, the principles of mtDNA analysis and the statistical methods
as applied to mtDNA are generally accepted as reliable in the
scientific community.
Apparently the use of mtDNA as a forensic tool and its general
acceptance as reliable in the scientific community is one of first
impression in this state. This court's research reveals only one
unreported case in New York County Supreme Court which deals with the
reliability in the scientific community of mtDNA. On May 11, 2000, in
the case of People v. Edmund Ko, Justice Harold Beeler rendered an
oral decision on the record after a Frye Hearing with respect to the
reliability of mtDNA in the scientific community. Like this case, he
discussed his concerns with respect to contamination and heteroplasmy
which he found should be subject to the dictates of cross-examination.
Justice Beeler did not invalidate the procedures of mtDNA testing and
the reliability of this procedure. His determination was that
heteroplasmy has to be considered and factored in when making the
ultimate interpretation of the issues, involved. Further, he found the
counting method to be appropriate and that it would assist the jury to
a certain extent. He held open the possibility of the use of
population statistics after the court had received additional
testimony. Justice Beeler gave great credence to Dr. Budowle's
testimony, who was one of the witnesses in the case before him, and
determined that his testimony reflects the pulse of the scientific
community in this area.
MtDNA has been found scientifically reliable in other jurisdictions.
In the case of United States of America v. Douglas Turns, United
States District Court Judge James L. Graham (Southern District of
Ohio-Eastern division January 24, 2000) found that MtDNA testing
satisfied the standard set forth in Daubert v Merrell Dow
Pharmaceuticals, 509 U.S. 579 which requires the trial court to
determine whether the reasoning or methodology underlying the
testimony is scientifically valid and can be applied to the facts in
issue. Judge Graham found that the significant difference between
mtDNA and nuclear DNA is that mtDNA has significantly fewer numbers of
base pairs in the DNA helix, He found that the statistical analysis is
based upon a formula which is apparently recognized in the scientific
community and used in a variety of scientific contexts. Judge Graham
determined that this statistical method is an acceptable and reliable
estimate of probability. The Tennessee Criminal Appeal Court in the
case of State of Tennessee v. Randall Scott, 1999 WL 547460, which
follows the Daubert rule, determined that it was not error to admit
mtDNA without a hearing. Further, in Tennessee, the applicable case
law does not require a finding of scientific reliability. (See also
State of Tennessee v. Paul William Ware, 1999 WL 235592). In the case
of People v. Kevin Carter Holtzer (Circuit Court State of Michigan,
June 10, 1999) Judge Thomas Power determined, after an evidentiary
hearing, that mtDNA has achieved general scientific acceptance for
reliability as required by the Davis-Frye standard. In South Carolina,
the High Court found no error by the admittance of mtDNA (See State v.
Donney S. Council, 335 S.C. 1, 515 S.E. 2d 508) according to its
standard. The standard used by the courts of South Carolina is whether
the evidence will assist the trier of facts, whether the expert is
qualified and whether the underlying science is reliable. Further, the
probative value must outweigh any prejudicial effect. The Court of
Appeals of North Carolina also found no error by the admittance by the
trial court of mtDNA (See State v. Lamont ClaxtonUnderwood, 134 N.C.
App, 533, 518 S.E.2d 231). In North Carolina, a scientific method is
admissible at trial if it is scientifically reliable and these courts
do not exclusively adhere to the Frye standard. Rather, the courts in
North Carolina follow the facts as outlined by the United States
Supreme Court in Daubert when determining whether scientific evidence
is reliable, to wit: 1) whether the theory or technique can be or has
been tested, 2) whether the theory has been subject to peer review, 3)
whether the theory has been submitted to the scrutiny of the
scientific community, 4) the known or potential rate of error, and 5)
the general acceptance in the relevant scientific community. MtDNA has
been found admissible in the state of Maryland in that it has been
determined to be generally accepted in the relevant scientific
community (State v. Scotland Eugene Williams, Circuit Court for Anne
Arundel County, Maryland, Judge Pamela L. North, May 6, 1998; affirmed
Court of Special Appeal of Maryland, April 12, 2000). Further, the
courts of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania have determined that mtDNA
has gained general acceptance in the relevant scientific community
pursuant to a Frye standard. (See Commonwealth v. Andrew Dillon,
January 30, 1998, Court of Common Pleas of LackawanaCounty;
Commonwealth v. Patricia Lynne Rorrer, January 20, 1998, Court of
Common Pleas of Lehigh County, affirmed Superior Court of
Pennsylvania, October 22, 1999). Likewise, a judge in California has
found that the mtDNA process is generally acceptable in the applicable
scientific community. (People v. Christian Guillermo Torres, September
21, 1999, Superior Court of California for the County of Orange).
The court finds that the credible evidence adduced at the hearing
established that mtDTA analysis and interpretations are generally
accepted as reliable in the scientific community and that the
procedures followed in this case establish a foundation for admission
of such evidence. The evidence has sufficiently established that the
analyses and interpretations of mtDNA has gained general acceptance in
the community of scientists that work in this field. The existence of
contamination and heteroplasmy do not affect the reliability of the
scientific procedure and these issues, which are subj ect to
cross-examination at the time of trial, do not invalidate the
procedures of mtDNA testing. Although both Dr. Budowle and Dr. Melton
testified that mtDNA can not be the unique identifier that nuclear DNA
can achieve, this conclusion, however, does not invalidate the
accuracy of the procedure and whether it is acceptable in the relevant
scientific community.
This court finds that many of the procedures used in analyzing mtDNA
are the same as those used in analyzing nuclear DNA. Further, the
statistical methods used by the technician in creating the upper
bounds of the confidence interval are basic statistical methods that
have been found generally accepted in the relevant scientific
community.
Moreover, mtDNA procedures have been subject to peer review and Dr.
Budowle testified that he knew of no peer review articles that state
that the aforesaid process and statistical methods were not
scientifically reliable. In addition, Dr. Melton testified that the
whole process has been subject to peer review and that she is unaware
of any peer review articles in disagreement with the methods used by
her lab with respect to analysis, interpretation and use of the
statistical formulas.
Therefore, the court will permit the People to present expert
testimony at trial regarding the mtDNA analysis and the results
determined therefrom.
The foregoing constitutes the opinion, decision and order of the
court.
I am impressed by how much time, effort & energy you put into a case
that you claim does not matter to you. If you are so sure that AA is
FS, why do you bother? The believers are not going to change their
minds. No matter how many 'cases' you cite. Do you think you are
going to change our minds & the evidence?
Rob Moshein
2003-07-01 15:53:23 UTC
Permalink
It seems you have trouble with English, at least complex English, so
let me make things simple:

I never said that "people who discuss the case are dullwitted and
delusional. I said that the only people who still believe that AA was
Anastasia are the dullwitted and delusional.
"The believers are not going to change their minds. No matter how many
'cases' you cite."
Your statement here only proves my point above perfectly....Pretty
much you say here "I will believe what I want, regardless of
reality"...

"Do you think you are going to change our minds & the evidence?"
Change YOUR mind? certainly not......I have no need to "change the
evidence". If you read the case, which I doubt, you would have seen
that I PRESENTED the evidence. You need only actually read it.
Post by Rob Moshein
Dr. Terry Melton has been working with mtDNA since 1991. She has a
Ph.D. from Penn State University in genetics. She has performed
hundreds of DNA analyses and thousands of PCR amplifications. She
testified that her lab exclusively performs mtDNA analysis. One
high profile analysis that she was involved with was the claim of Anna
Anderson that she was the remaining living child of the Romanov
family. By the use of mtDNA, it was determined that she was not the
Grand Duchess Anastasia.
The Court cited the AA case here as support for Dr. Melton's
credentials as an expert in mtDNA analysis. Please note that there is
no reference to any question of the accuracy of the results of the
test. In fact, the accuracy of the AA test is overtly IMPLIED because
the Court cites it as part of the basis for believing her expertise in
mtDNA work and IN FACT RELIES ON THIS CASE to demonstrate her
expertise.
Post by Rob Moshein
Like Dr. Budowle, Dr. Melton explained the procedures and protocols
that her lab follows in order to prevent contamination and maintain
the integrity of the achieved results. In order to prevent
heteroplasmy, the technician makes sure that the negative controls are
free of contamination. Her lab uses two types of negative controls,
one which goes with the sample from the moment of extraction through
the complete process. The other one is used for PCR amplification. The
latter control will tell the technician if contamination exists, She
also testified that both the French and the Italians have created
their own databases. If you totaled the databases from around the
world, the sequences would be close to eight thousand. Further, like
Dr. Budowle, Dr. Melton uses a standard statistical formula used by
the scientific community in order to obtain a confidence interval. Dr.
Melton testified that she is unaware of any peer review articles in
disagreement with
the method used by her lab with respect to the analysis and
interpretation of mtDNA. She testified that there is no process for
mtDNA analysis that is not generally accepted as a valid scientific
procedure. The whole process has been subject to peer review. Further,
the
statistical formula for mtDNA is generally accepted by the scientific
community. Dr. Melton testified that there were no peer review
articles stating that this statistical formula or method was not a
reliable interpretation of the mtDNA database. She also testified that
counting method, the confidence interval approach and the likelihood
calculation are each equally valid.
In plain English, what this says is that NO SCIENTISTS have published
ANYTHING to date which has questioned the accuracy of her work,
INCLUDING the mtDNA analysis of AA, excluding her as GD Anastasia. I
have seen lots of claims made here of the "innacuracy" of the AA mtDNA
testing, but for some reason, NO ONE, including YOU, can actually
cite any published scientific reference to back up their claims. I
wonder why??
Post by Rob Moshein
Dr. Melton testified that, in her opinion, the underlying principles
of mtDNA, the principles of mtDNA analysis and the statistical methods
as applied to mtDNA are generally accepted as reliable in the
scientific community.
In plain English again, mtDNA analysis, IS regarded as reliable and
accepted by the scientific community. NOT as Peter, Penny, you, et al
so often assert.....Here it is, folks, accepted as a matter of law by
Post by Rob Moshein
The court finds that the credible evidence adduced at the hearing
established that mtDTA analysis and interpretations are generally
accepted as reliable in the scientific community and that the
procedures followed in this case establish a foundation for admission
of such evidence. The evidence has sufficiently established that the
analyses and interpretations of mtDNA has gained general acceptance in
the community of scientists that work in this field. The existence of
contamination and heteroplasmy do not affect the reliability of the
scientific procedure and these issues, which are subj ect to
cross-examination at the time of trial, do not invalidate the
procedures of mtDNA testing. Although both Dr. Budowle and Dr. Melton
testified that mtDNA can not be the unique identifier that nuclear DNA
can achieve, this conclusion, however, does not invalidate the
accuracy of the procedure and whether it is acceptable in the relevant
scientific community.
This court finds that many of the procedures used in analyzing mtDNA
are the same as those used in analyzing nuclear DNA. Further, the
statistical methods used by the technician in creating the upper
bounds of the confidence interval are basic statistical methods that
have been found generally accepted in the relevant scientific
community.
Moreover, mtDNA procedures have been subject to peer review and Dr.
Budowle testified that he knew of no peer review articles that state
that the aforesaid process and statistical methods were not
scientifically reliable. In addition, Dr. Melton testified that the
whole process has been subject to peer review and that she is unaware
of any peer review articles in disagreement with the methods used by
her lab with respect to analysis, interpretation and use of the
statistical formulas.
Once again, Dr. Melton said that NO SCIENTIST has ever questioned in
writing the accuracy of her results or methods in any of her work,
which expressly includes her work EXCLUDING AA as Anastasia. So if the
AA mtDNA analysis is so flawed and unreliable, WHY havent any
scientists stated so in writing??
Post by Rob Moshein
The foregoing constitutes the opinion, decision and order of the
court.
res ipsa loquiter. Deal with it.
Brad Verity
2003-07-03 23:16:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by Rob Moshein
If you read the case, which I doubt, you would have seen
that I PRESENTED the evidence. You need only actually read it.
I read the excerpts of it below, and have responded with my
impressions.
Post by Rob Moshein
Post by Rob Moshein
Dr. Terry Melton has been working with mtDNA since 1991. She has a
Ph.D. from Penn State University in genetics. She has performed
hundreds of DNA analyses and thousands of PCR amplifications. She
testified that her lab exclusively performs mtDNA analysis.
Dr. Melton is clearly an expert in mtDNA analysis, she was in 1994
when she did the hair sample analysis of AA and in June 2000 when this
completely non-AA-related New York State case used her testimony.
Post by Rob Moshein
Post by Rob Moshein
One
high profile analysis that she was involved with was the claim of Anna
Anderson that she was the remaining living child of the Romanov
family. By the use of mtDNA, it was determined that she was not the
Grand Duchess Anastasia.
The Court cited the AA case here as support for Dr. Melton's
credentials as an expert in mtDNA analysis.
Yes, it did. Apparently because out of the hundreds of DNA analyses
Dr. Melton ran, it was very high-profile.
Post by Rob Moshein
Please note that there is
no reference to any question of the accuracy of the results of the
test. In fact, the accuracy of the AA test is overtly IMPLIED because
the Court cites it as part of the basis for believing her expertise in
mtDNA work and IN FACT RELIES ON THIS CASE to demonstrate her
expertise.
It brings it up as a high profile case out of the hundreds she has
worked on. The court is in effect saying "Dr. Melton can be
considered an mtDNA expert because she has performed hundreds of
analyses, including the 'Anna Anderson was not Anastasia' one a lot of
people heard about."

Now, the Court can then assume that every mtDNA analysis Dr. Melton
performed, including the 1994 AA one, was accurate because it has
deemed her an expert. But it isn't stating that - just that Dr.
Melton is an expert who has done hundreds of analyses, including the
AA one.

[snip of Dr. Melton's statements regarding her methods, accuracy and
peer review]
Post by Rob Moshein
In plain English, what this says is that NO SCIENTISTS have published
ANYTHING to date which has questioned the accuracy of her work,
INCLUDING the mtDNA analysis of AA, excluding her as GD Anastasia.
More clearly, no challenge to the procedures Dr. Melton used or the
accuracy of the results obtained from those procedures, had been put
forth as of June 2000. The scientific community accepted Dr. Melton
as an mtDNA testing expert.

She is an expert. And, with all the evidence you've put forth, a
professional and reputable one.
Post by Rob Moshein
I
have seen lots of claims made here of the "innacuracy" of the AA mtDNA
testing, but for some reason, NO ONE, including YOU, can actually
cite any published scientific reference to back up their claims. I
wonder why??
Did you read Greg King's post?
Post by Rob Moshein
Post by Rob Moshein
Dr. Melton testified that, in her opinion, the underlying principles
of mtDNA, the principles of mtDNA analysis and the statistical methods
as applied to mtDNA are generally accepted as reliable in the
scientific community.
In plain English again, mtDNA analysis, IS regarded as reliable and
accepted by the scientific community. NOT as Peter, Penny, you, et al
so often assert.....
I don't remember anyone saying that the scientific community finds
mtDNA analysis unreliable and unacceptable.
Post by Rob Moshein
Once again, Dr. Melton said that NO SCIENTIST has ever questioned in
writing the accuracy of her results or methods in any of her work,
which expressly includes her work EXCLUDING AA as Anastasia. So if the
AA mtDNA analysis is so flawed and unreliable, WHY havent any
scientists stated so in writing??
Perhaps because very few scientists are also historians? No other
scientist has bothered to familiarize him/herself with the
80-plus-year details of the Anastasia/Anna Anderson mystery, and are
unaware that there are very deep discrepancies with the conclusion
drawn by Dr. Melton as a result of her '94 mtDNA analysis?

It's easy for experts in one area (DNA) to be perfectly fine with
their conclusions - "the test shows no mtDNA match - AA was not
Anastasia" and not worry about all the other non-DNA-related details.
That's not for them to work out.

And isn't there now a Japanese scientist, per Greg King's post, who
has called the DNA test results not as 100% conclusive as you wish to
view them? Because advances in testing methods since 94 (and 2000)
have shown that the sequence used for the Hesse mtDNA line (which AA's
sample did not match) had inaccuracies in it? Or am I completely
confused?
Post by Rob Moshein
Post by Rob Moshein
The foregoing constitutes the opinion, decision and order of the
court.
Yes, the New York State Supreme Court viewed Dr. Melton as an mtDNA
expert and determined that the scientific community views mtDNA
testing methods as scientifically valid. I agree with the Court's
decision.
Post by Rob Moshein
res ipsa loquiter. Deal with it.
Ummm, OK. The 1994 mtDNA test showed no match between AA sample and
Hesse mtDNA sequence.

Since Dr. Melton was clearly (and still is) an expert who used the
best mtDNA test method available then, we are left with the
possibilities:

1) AA was not Anastasia - most likely possibility
2) The '94 mtDNA test produced an inaccurate exclusion (a false
negative) between the AA sample and Hesse sample.
3) The AA sample was not from AA.
4) The Hesse sequence was flawed (I don't think the Duke of Edinburgh
appeared in person to Penn State or FSS for the specific AA testing,
but please correct me if I'm wrong).

Simple as that.

Cheers, -----Brad
Andy.3rd
2003-07-04 06:44:56 UTC
Permalink
Post by Brad Verity
4) The Hesse sequence was flawed (I don't think the Duke of Edinburgh
appeared in person to Penn State or FSS for the specific AA testing,
but please correct me if I'm wrong).
Simple as that.
Cheers, -----Brad
With the high profile that particular case had there is NO ONE who would have
accepted a broken Chain of Custody (i.e. EVERY person who handles that specimen
from the time it is collected and sealed until the time that seal is broken and
the specimen prepared for testing in the lab signs a form that acompanies the
specimen with their name, date, time it came into their possession and time it
was passed on to the next party).




His Illustrious and Most Serene Jadedness, Andy, RSM
John Kendrick
2003-07-01 14:18:07 UTC
Permalink
Post by Rob Moshein
Here is WHY they will never address your point, they make stuff up to
support their case, without addressing the facts. Sorry for the length
of this post, but I for one am truly sick and tired of them saying
that this scientific analysis is "faulty" "unreliable" and
"inadmissable in courts" when it is WITHOUT DOUBT not the case. In
fact, one of the scientists who testified in this case, Dr. Terry
Melton, who determined by her mtdna research that AA was NOT GD
Anastasia is expressly found to be a reliable and credible witness
here, her work in the AA case is found to be STILL valid and reliable,
and this Court legally finds that her research is STILL reliable,
credible and admissable. I specifically wish to point out the
numerous times where each scientist testified UNDER OATH that they
were unaware of any scientific peer review studies which disagreed
with the accuracy and vailidity of their mtdna analyses and
methodology, as well as the numerous jurisditions which have found
this mtdna reseach admissible in evidence. This decision is from
PEOPLE v. KLINGER
713 N.Y.S.2d 823
N.Y.Co.Ct., 2000
Sept. 5, 2000
Judge Brown
PEOPLE v. MICHAEL KLINGER and RAYMOND KLINGER QDS:76703137?The
following
constitutes the opinion, decision and order of the court.
***
By previous order of the Honorable Paul E. Kowtna, this court
conducted a Frye hearing on June 6, 2000 and June 13, 2000, to
determine the admissibility of mitochondrial DNA evidence at the trial
of the above-captioned Indictment..........
Only a portion of a single sentence in the court judgement that Mr.
Moshein has seen fit to post of "PEOPLE v. MICHAEL KLINGER and RAYMOND
KLINGER" is of any relevance at all to the use of mitochondrial DNA in
the Romanov case... or in any other case for that matter.

That line is found in the fourth paragraph from the end, and it reads:
"...Dr. Budowle and Dr. Melton testified that mtDNA *cannot* be the
unique identifier that nuclear DNA can achieve...."

In other words, the court has recognised the testimony of Dr. Budowle
and Dr. Melton.... upon whose reputations Mr. Moshein has based his
arguement... that mitochondrial DNA *CANNOT* identify specific
individuals in the same way that nuclear DNA is capable of identifying
specific individuals.

Mitochondrial DNA can *only* show that a given sample might belong to
a *possible* member of a given maternal line, just as the test results
achieved by Dr. Peter Gill on the tissue samples that are said to
belong to Anna Anderson have shown that those same samples only appear
belong to a possible member of the same maternal line as Karl Maucher.

That test does *not* prove that AA is a member of the same maternal
line as Karl Maucher. Nor does it prove that AA is Franziska
Schanzkowska. It shows nothing more than the fact that she could be a
*possible* relative of Karl Maucher, and nothing more.

The same is true of the Ekaterinburg remains, where the mtDNA tests
done by Peter Gill and Pavel Ivanov do *not* actually prove that the
remains of Body NO.4 are the remains of Nicholas II. Those test have
only proved that the remains of Body N0.4 are those of someone who is
a possible member of the same maternal line as known maternal
Hesse-Cassel relatives of Nicholas II's grandmother Louise and his
mother Dagmar.

Only a direct comparison to a known source of nuclear DNA from a
particular individual can identify that same individual. Only a
direct comparison of samples of a known source of nuclear DNA from
Nicholas II can identify the remains of Nicholas II. A mitochondrial
test will only identify those remains as nothing more than *possible*
member of the same family line.

The same applies to the Anna Anderson case, where only a direct
comparison of a known source of nuclear DNA from Franziska
Schanzkowska herself can prove whether or not AA actually was
Schanzkowska. Without a sample from a proven source of the nuclear
DNA of Schanzkowska herself... which is not known to exist... the
mtDNA comparison of AA to Karl Maucher showing that they *might*
belong to the same maternal line is nothing more than just one
possible explanation of AA's true identity.

The mere fact that it has been shown to be a possible explanation does
*NOT*, of necessity, also make it true.
John Kendrick
2003-07-03 17:51:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by John Kendrick
Only a portion of a single sentence in the court judgement that Mr.
Moshein has seen fit to post of "PEOPLE v. MICHAEL KLINGER and RAYMOND
KLINGER" is of any relevance at all to the use of mitochondrial DNA in
the Romanov case... or in any other case for that matter.
"...Dr. Budowle and Dr. Melton testified that mtDNA *cannot* be the
unique identifier that nuclear DNA can achieve...."
That test does *not* prove that AA is a member of the same maternal
line as Karl Maucher. Nor does it prove that AA is Franziska
Schanzkowska. It shows nothing more than the fact that she could be a
*possible* relative of Karl Maucher, and nothing more.
I repeat.. The point has not been missed.

The previous post was not intended to challenge the results achieved
by either Peter Gill using the Anderson tissue sample obtained from
Martha Jeffereson Hospital or by the scientists testing the Anderson
hair sample at Penn State. It was only intended to point out that
those same test results do not confirm it to be a certainty that
Anderson was Schanzkowska, as some are convinced the tests have
proved.

There is one issue, however, that your posting of the "People vs.
Klinger and Klinger" judgement does not answer. That is the still
unresolved matter of the 1954 "Anastasia" blood slide tested in
Germany... the issue of why the test result from that particular
sample did not match the results of either the tissue sample tested by
the FSS in England or the hair sample tested at Penn State... and the
unanswered question of whether the original source of that 1954 blood
slide sample had actually been Anderson or whether it had come from
another, as yet un-named, claimant.
news.verizon.net
2003-07-03 18:44:11 UTC
Permalink
Rant on, mademoiselle. It's claim you can't even dream of making. PK

----- Original Message -----
From: "Rob Moshein" <***@aol.com>
Newsgroups: alt.talk.royalty
Sent: Wednesday, July 02, 2003 9:52 PM
Subject: Re: Anna Anderson: Franziska Schanzkowska?
Post by Rob Moshein
Post by news.verizon.net
FYI: Mr. Kurth's involvement with AA goes beyond having written a
book --
Post by Rob Moshein
Post by news.verizon.net
it's the "and so forth" part that keeps him in her camp. Having known
her
Post by Rob Moshein
Post by news.verizon.net
and -- even more important -- a lot of the Romanovs of that generation,
he
Post by Rob Moshein
Post by news.verizon.net
knows that what's been written about her rarely corresponds with what
was
Post by Rob Moshein
Post by news.verizon.net
said about her in private. He also knows exactly the degree of
resemblance
Post by Rob Moshein
Post by news.verizon.net
she bore -- physical, mental &, you might say, in "aura" and
personality --
Post by Rob Moshein
Post by news.verizon.net
to all those she claimed as her relatives.
Just a point. PK
And the scientific evidence proved that, without a doubt, AA was
excluded from the possibility of being a Romanov (see the case I
cited)...but then Peter (as usual) does not and can not cite any
scientific peer review publications to refute the accuracy of the
genetic testing that proved AA was a fraud...
Just a point...RM
Rob Moshein
2003-07-05 04:23:07 UTC
Permalink
Sigh. Who here has argued that? If you'd be willing to first accept
that Anna Anderson was *not* Anastasia, then perhaps we could have a
civil discussion as to why you think she was not FS, and who she
might have been, but until that happens, I'm suspicious of the
motivations behind such arguments.
Some people never get it.
The point was not whether Anderson was Schanzkowska. That is not the
issue here. The point was that mitochondrial DNA cannot prove that
Anderson was Schanzkowska
True that Some people never get it, and it seems Mr Kendrick that you
don't get it either.... the point IS that Anna Anderson was NOT Grand
Duchess Anastasia, THAT is the issue here....and mtDNA HAS proved that
AA was NOT Anastasia and that point HAS been shown to be
scientifically accurate and reliable. No one here has actually yet
shown otherwise..and Peter Kurth, as the so called "expert" on the
subject, himself has YET to prove anything to the contrary; and
despite repeated requests, he is as yet unable to demonstrate anything
on point in a coherent and documented manner (other than proving
himself to be an ill mannered, bitter and miserable person with no
shown useful talent, save that of washed-up "pseudo historian" with
nothing left to do beyond casting groundless aspersions and school
yard namecalling.)
jlk7e
2003-07-05 06:15:23 UTC
Permalink
Post by John Kendrick
Post by John Kendrick
Only a portion of a single sentence in the court judgement that Mr.
Moshein has seen fit to post of "PEOPLE v. MICHAEL KLINGER and RAYMOND
KLINGER" is of any relevance at all to the use of mitochondrial DNA in
the Romanov case... or in any other case for that matter.
"...Dr. Budowle and Dr. Melton testified that mtDNA *cannot* be the
unique identifier that nuclear DNA can achieve...."
That test does *not* prove that AA is a member of the same maternal
line as Karl Maucher. Nor does it prove that AA is Franziska
Schanzkowska. It shows nothing more than the fact that she could be a
*possible* relative of Karl Maucher, and nothing more.
I repeat.. The point has not been missed.
The previous post was not intended to challenge the results achieved
by either Peter Gill using the Anderson tissue sample obtained from
Martha Jeffereson Hospital or by the scientists testing the Anderson
hair sample at Penn State. It was only intended to point out that
those same test results do not confirm it to be a certainty that
Anderson was Schanzkowska, as some are convinced the tests have
proved.
Sigh. Who here has argued that? If you'd be willing to first accept
that Anna Anderson was *not* Anastasia, then perhaps we could have a
civil discussion as to why you think she was not FS, and who she
might have been, but until that happens, I'm suspicious of the
motivations behind such arguments.
Some people never get it.
The point was not whether Anderson was Schanzkowska. That is not the
issue here. The point was that mitochondrial DNA cannot prove that
Anderson was Schanzkowska.
Yes, I agree with you. But *my* point is that I could care less
whether Anderson was Schanzkowska. What I do care about it whether
she was Anastasia, and mitochondrial DNA *did* prove that she was not.
Dee Dee
2003-06-30 22:54:12 UTC
Permalink
Lisa, being as perceptive as you are, surely you
have noted something about "Brad" and "DeeDee..."
Sorry, Steve. Perceive away, but you are incorrect. I am a woman who
lives in Washington State. Would you like my phone number so you can
call & verify it for yourself? I never hide. Nor use other e-mail
addresses. I say what I think I do not CARE who knows it. I have no
need for an alias. But how about YOU?


Dena Denise
"Dee Dee"
***@aol.com
Dee Dee
2003-06-30 22:59:51 UTC
Permalink
Lisa, being as perceptive as you are, surely you
have noted something about "Brad" and "DeeDee..."
Not being so perceptive, what are you insinuating?
Cheers, ----Brad
He is insinuating that you & I are the same person. That I, Dena, are
really you, Brad. That I am using the name Brad as some sort of
'cover', I guess. He doesn't know me very well. I say what I have to
say & don't CARE who sees it or knows it. Hes just some kind of a
trouble maker, I think.


Dena Denise
"Dee Dee"
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